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Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.

Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.